Doing the math...

I'm not a number cruncher by any means. I know just enough to be dangerous. I'm more of an intuition type of guy.

Today I decided to try and figure out the time I think it will take for me to qualify for Kona at Ironman China.

The first thing I did was print out Ironman China finishing times for the past two years. The results for 2008 was the inaugural race and it was normal weather conditions and the results for 2009 were in extreme, plus 40 C heat. It looks like the heat added about an hour to the finishing times.

I looked at two age groups. The 40 - 44 and the 45 - 49 and the top 5 finishing times for each. I'll be racing as a 45 year old this year. Ah, the benefits of having a November birthday when December 31st is the cut off. I'll be one of the youngest 45 year olds.

The results looked like this:

2008 - 40 - 44 (1)9:56:47 (2)10:13:23 (3)10:26:32 (4)10:35:51 (5)10:38:18

2008 - 45 - 49 (1)10:35:38 (2)11:15:09 (3)11:33:06 (4)11:45:44 (5)11:58:58

2009 - 40 - 44 (1)10:31:01 (2)10:35:00 (3)10:47:09 (4)10:58:16 (5)11:07:42

2009 - 45 - 49 (1)10:51:05 (2)11:37:32 (3)11:41:00 (4)12:16:45 (5)12:19:21

From what I can see, a 10:38 or less should be good enough to get a top 5 finish and a Kona qualifying spot. I also looked at the participant list and the top finishers from last year are racing again this year.

As of January 1st, there is 51 racers in my 45 - 49 age group and I normally finish in the top 5 - 10% of my age group. I also looked at the transition times and 9 minutes seems to be a very realistic time.

I've put together three predictions. The first is based on inputs from Triathlon Calculator based on racing times and distances trained. The second is what I think should be attainable if I race within my limits. And the Third is what I think is possible if I have the race of my life and put it on the line.

1. Triathlon Calculator

10:46:54 plus 9:00 transition

Final - 10:55:54

2. Intuitively Attainable

Swim - 1:12:00

T1 - 4:30

Bike - 5:40:00

T2 - 4:30

Run - 3:55:00

Final - 10:56

3. Race of my life

Swim - 1:08:00

T1 - 4:00

Bike - 5:15:00

T2 - 4:00

Run - 3:30

Final - 10:01

So there it is. If I have an attainable race, I should be on the bubble. If I have the race of my life or a race where I finish under 10:30 I should qualify. The numbers show I have a decent chance of finishing in the top 5 and getting a Kona slot if the quality of the field is the same as previous years.

After this weekends training, my taper begins. Today it was a speed swim and I felt strong. I easily did 50 meters at 41 seconds. My speed work included sets of 50's and my slowest of 24 x 50 was 44 seconds. I think those long swims in California in a 50 meter pool were highly beneficial.

I saw my swim buddy Kevin at the pool and overall he said I looked good, although he thinks my head is too low in the water. I've heard from others that having your head lower in the water is preferred and that having it higher is old school. Right now I'm going to leave it how it is. At the end of the swim he enthusiastically shook my hand an wished me good luck in China.

I've been looking at the weather in Haikou and it's been warmer and higher humidity than I expected. It looks like it will end up being a humid 30 C. Tonight I decided to go to a tanning salon and I'm going to try and go every second day until I leave.

I also found out that the YMCA's exclusive men's club has a steam room. My plan is to "sneak" in there and try to get as much sweat time as possible to help my body adjust to heat and humidity. I may even start taking hot baths at home.

I intuitively knew I lost weight in California. Today, for the first time in a LONG time, I weighed in at 179.8 lbs, finally breaking that 180 barrier. I checked my stats from August 2008 when I did Ironman Louisville and I was the exact same weight.

I was hoping to be lighter for China, but my retired Ironman buddy Gord Brauer, made an excellent point, he said "on a flat course being heavier is a power advantage. Hills are a different story".

Before I leave to China I need to get some Hepatitis and other shots. So I set up an appointment for next Friday and they are going to load me up with what they can with such short notice.

Speed swim - 1:17:00 / 3500 meters.